SpaceX Commercial Crew Delay and Propellant Loading

The inevitable delay has been confirmed—approximately a six-month push–which is not surprising. The more important and meaningful revelation that came yesterday, per Jeff Foust of SpaceNews, was about the Falcon 9 propellant loading procedures as it pertains to crewed launches:

SpaceX said that it has worked with NASA to perform “a detailed safety analysis of all potential hazards” involved in this fueling process, with a report approved by NASA’s Safety Technical Review Board in July. That report, the company said, identified various controls it will implement to address those hazards. “As needed, any additional controls will be put in place to ensure crew safety,” the company said.

This is big for SpaceX, because it means their fueling process for crewed launches can be the same as for any other mission. The less overhead and complexity, the better.

As far as the schedule is concerned, here’s how I see it shaking out (as I talked about on a recent episode of the podcast):

Falcon 9 gets up and flying again from Pad 39A, carrying Dragon and commercial missions to LEO and GTO. Once SLC-40 is back online around summer, those missions shift back there, and 39A is freed up for Falcon Heavy and Dragon 2.

That would give them one pad (SLC-40) to keep the manifest flowing, and one pad (39A) to work on their future. Falcon Heavy will be a big priority after SLC-40 is repaired, and Dragon 2 plays a part in both Commercial Crew missions and Red Dragon, so it will be a major focus, as well. I’d guess Falcon Heavy flies mid-to-late summer, and we see a Dragon 2 flight in the fall.