Main Engine Cut Off

Thanks to November Patrons

Very special thanks to the 350 of you out there supporting Main Engine Cut Off on Patreon for the month of November. MECO is entirely listener- and reader-supported, and it’s your support keeps this blog and podcast going, growing, and improving, and most importantly, it keeps it independent.

And a huge thanks to the 38 executive producers of Main Engine Cut Off: Kris, Pat, Matt, Jorge, Brad, Ryan, Nadim, Peter, Donald, Lee, Chris, Warren, Bob, Russell, John, Moritz, Joel, Jan, David, Grant, Mike, David, Mints, Joonas, Robb, Tim Dodd (the Everyday Astronaut!), Frank, Julian and Lars from Agile Space, Tommy, Adam, Sam, and six anonymous executive producers.

If you’re getting some value out of what I do here and want to help support Main Engine Cut Off, head over to Patreon and join the crew of supporters and producers!

There are other ways to help support, too: head over to the shop and buy yourself a shirt or a pair of Rocket Socks, tell a friend, or post a link to something I’m writing or talking about on Twitter or in your favorite subreddit. Spreading the word is an immense help to an independent creator like myself.

T+140: Launch Protests and Lander Hopefuls

Blue Origin successfully protested the US Air Force’s RFP for the National Security Space Launch program, which will have big implications for the way the current round of contract awards plays out. NASA added five new providers to the Commercial Lunar Payload Services program, including SpaceX and Blue Origin, and I’ve got some thoughts about the inclusion of those options in what is quickly becoming my favorite NASA program.

This episode of Main Engine Cut Off is brought to you by 38 executive producers—Kris, Pat, Matt, Jorge, Brad, Ryan, Nadim, Peter, Donald, Lee, Chris, Warren, Bob, Russell, John, Moritz, Joel, Jan, David, Grant, Mike, David, Mints, Joonas, Robb, Tim Dodd the Everyday Astronaut, Frank, Julian and Lars from Agile Space, Tommy, Adam, Sam, and six anonymous—and 310 other supporters.

Topics

The Show

ITU Updates Megaconstellations Milestones

Caleb Henry, for SpaceNews, with some news from the International Telecommunication Union:

Regulators meeting in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, for the 2019 World Radiocommunication Conference this month said that for non-geosynchronous constellation operators to keep their full spectrum rights in the future, they will have to hit deployment milestones that start seven years after requesting the spectrum. 

After those seven years, NGSO constellation operators will need to launch 10% of their satellites in two years, 50% in five years and 100% in seven years. If constellation ventures fail to launch enough satellites by the milestones, or within the total 14 years allotted, their spectrum rights are limited proportionally to the number launched before time ran out.

This is definitely an improvement over the status quo, which is that you can launch a single satellite and that covers your spectrum rights for thousands more that you may never launch.

These milestones sound a touch more strict than what the FCC imposes on US constellations—which is 50% in six years and 100% in nine years from when the FCC approves the request. But since the timeline starts 7 years after requesting spectrum, it may be a little more relaxed in practice.

The biggest difference is that missing the FCC milestones limits the number of satellites that can be launched, and missing the new ITU milestones limits spectrum rights.

In general, constellations will need to target the most strict deployment milestone imposed upon them by however their own timelines lay out. It’ll be interesting to see if there’s any convergence between the various timelines in the future.

Nanoracks to Fly Outpost Demo on Falcon 9

Recently, Nanoracks announced the Company’s first in-space Outpost demonstration mission in a letter from CEO Jeffrey Manber. Nanoracks, in collaboration with Maxar, will be building and operating a self-contained hosted payload platform that will demonstrate the robotic cutting of second stage representative tank material on-orbit. This test will be the first of its kind to demonstrate the future ability to convert spent upper stages in orbit into commercial habitats – a long-term goal of Nanoracks.

On this SpaceX Falcon 9 mission, the Nanoracks Outpost demonstration will be hosted on an ESPA ring and be operated after all other secondary payloads have been deployed. This Outpost demonstration is funded via Nanoracks’ NextSTEP-2 contract with NASA.

When I was at IAC, I heard that this would be flying on the back of Centaur. That made sense, as ULA was a partner in Nanoracks’ Outpost program.

But after this announcement, I went looking, and ULA hasn’t appeared in anything related to Outposts in months.

It looks like Outposts might be yet another exciting project with ULA sitting on the sidelines.

At this point, just about all of my hope for ULA to see an interesting future—CisLunar-1000 et al—is gone.

NASA Adds SpaceX and Blue Origin, Among Others, to CLPS

Last week, NASA announced the addition of SpaceX, Blue Origin, Sierra Nevada, Tyvak, and Ceres Robotics to the list of Commercial Lunar Payload Services providers. That brings the total number of providers to 14.

It’s good to see continued support of Starship and Blue Moon from NASA, but don’t get too excited by these two merely being added to the CLPS list. After all, OrbitBeyond was on the list and won a task order, and we saw how that turned out.

The key task order for Starship and Blue Moon will be VIPER, the fairly-sizable rover NASA officially announced a month ago at IAC. None of the previous CLPS providers had a lander big enough, so I see this as a contest between Starship and Blue Moon.

I’d be shocked if Blue Moon didn’t get it, as they seem perfectly matched for each other.

That’s not a knock on Starship, but it’s going to take some time for most of the industry to get their head around any architectures involving multiple on-orbit refueling runs and 40-meter cranes.

Blue Moon has a much more straightforward development path from today to VIPER on the lunar surface.

Blue Origin’s Protest Successful: Air Force to Revise Criteria for NSSL

Blue Origin filed a protest back in August with a handful of complaints about the selection criteria for the National Security Space Launch program. The Government Accountability Office sided with Blue Origin on what seems like the most important complaint, but threw out a handful of other ones.

The GAO released a redacted version of their decision, which contains the best description of the selection criteria that Blue Origin protested and the Air Force will modify:

The Air Force does not contemplate performing a “typical source selection”, wherein the agency would rank the proposals and then conduct individual trade off determinations for the first and then second requirements contract. COS at 13-14. Rather, the RFP contemplates that award will be made to the two offerors that, “when combined, represent the overall best value to the Government.” RFP, attach. No. 6, Evaluation Criteria, at 2. In response to the protest, the contracting officer explains that the Air Force does not intend to conduct a tradeoff based on the individual merits of each individual proposal, but, rather, intends to conduct a tradeoff based on pairings of proposals.

This “when combined” clause was the biggest issue, as it makes the selection criteria murky, and in my eyes, easily manipulable. That clause makes it easy to shut down any protests or arguments after an award—the Air Force could rely on the explanation, “These two went together the best.”

Blue Origin likely—rightfully—saw that clause as one of the biggest ways they could lose out to SpaceX and ULA. After all, which two offerors go together better than the two flying these missions reliably right now?

The other complaints that the GAO did not agree with had to do with things that would more obviously benefit Blue Origin over others—they wanted to see three providers selected instead of two, they wanted to see two-year awards instead of five, and so on. In those two circumstances, Blue Origin would be selected as the third provider after SpaceX and ULA, because OmegA is a hot mess, and Blue Origin would have a good shot at winning two-year awards in the future when New Glenn is flying.

The Air Force will be removing the “when combined” clause and will not be modifying their selection size or timelines, so the stage is set for the best providers to win.

Blue Origin needs to show that they’re doing great work and have an attractive offer, and ULA needs to buckle down now that the path is not as easy for them as it was before.

I will still be shocked if the selection result is not SpaceX and ULA, in that order, but the GAO decision certainly opens up the possibilities here.

T+139: RemoveDEBRIS with Richard Duke

Richard Duke from the Surrey Space Center joins me to talk about their RemoveDEBRIS mission, which launched last year and carried out 4 different tests focused on space debris removal and management.

This episode of Main Engine Cut Off is brought to you by 38 executive producers—Kris, Pat, Matt, Jorge, Brad, Ryan, Nadim, Peter, Donald, Lee, Chris, Warren, Bob, Russell, John, Moritz, Joel, Jan, David, Grant, Mike, David, Mints, Joonas, Robb, Tim Dodd the Everyday Astronaut, Frank, Julian and Lars from Agile Space, Tommy, Adam, Sam, and six anonymous—and 308 other supporters.

Virgin Orbit Gets Funding from UK Space Agency, Maybe Local Government

Jeff Foust, for SpaceNews:

The U.K. Space Agency announced Nov. 5 that it will provide £7.35 million ($9.5 million) to Virgin Orbit U.K. Ltd., the U.K. branch of Virgin Orbit, for launch support equipment and mission planning activities at Cornwall Airport Newquay, also known as Spaceport Cornwall, intended to support flights by Virgin Orbit’s LauncherOne air-launch system.

The space agency funding is part of a broader funding package of nearly £20 million to allow Virgin Orbit to operate from the airport in southwestern England. The local government in Cornwall is slated to vote later this month on providing £10 million for the effort, while Virgin Orbit will contribute £2.5 million.

Virgin Orbit continues the trend of Virgin space companies convincing local governments to pay for its spaceports. But the Virgin Orbit funding is a lot more sensible than the Virgin Galactic funding.

I think I’m too quick to shrug off the “domestic launch capability on demand” aspect of Virgin Orbit. That’s a big selling point for countries with no up-and-running spaceport, and even more so for countries with geography that isn’t conducive to the existence of one at all.

Thanks to October Patrons

Very special thanks to the 335 of you out there supporting Main Engine Cut Off on Patreon for the month of October. MECO is entirely listener- and reader-supported, and it’s your support keeps this blog and podcast going, growing, and improving, and most importantly, it keeps it independent.

And a huge thanks to the 38 executive producers of Main Engine Cut Off: Kris, Pat, Matt, Jorge, Brad, Ryan, Nadim, Peter, Donald, Lee, Chris, Warren, Bob, Russell, John, Moritz, Joel, Jan, David, Grant, Mike, David, Mints, Joonas, Robb, Tim Dodd (the Everyday Astronaut!), Frank, Julian and Lars from Agile Space, Tommy, Adam, Sam, and six anonymous executive producers.

Your support was the reason I could head down to IAC 2019 and make so many incredible connections that will be hugely beneficial to the show in the future! The interview with Peter Beck was the first of the episodes that came out of that trip, so it’s already starting to pay off! I could not do that without you, so thank you!

If you’re getting some value out of what I do here and want to help support Main Engine Cut Off, head over to Patreon and join the crew of supporters and producers!

There are other ways to help support, too: head over to the shop and buy yourself a shirt or a pair of Rocket Socks, tell a friend, or post a link to something I’m writing or talking about on Twitter or in your favorite subreddit. Spreading the word is an immense help to an independent creator like myself.